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| | crowds sat and listened to long time civil rights activists as well as a new generation of speakers. He beat the police,New South Wales motoring organisation the NRMA's Tim Moggridge says it's an extremely unusual incident. But don't assume the camp was all shugs and laughs. and we have our guys at the top who are really pushing us with Jay and Steve. the US should destroy dozens of military sites. Washington's new battle plan could easily rattle some of its friends and allies. All these objections create one final problem with AirSea Battle: is such an approach politically viable Given the risks especially the chance of nuclear escalation it is not at all clear that a US president would endorse a war plan that involved such a rolling bombing campaign Successful deterrence relies on being able to demonstrate a military threat that is credible and realistic Pentagon planners hope the Chinese military will be cowed by the mere thought of an American military strategy based on AirSea Battle But equally the Chinese might come to see it as a one great big bluffAt the very least AirSea Battle concentrates the mind It is prompting a much broader debate in the US about how to respond to the Chinese challenge With its superiority now under threat Washington faces a choice: it can try to retain its primacy at all costs or it can shift to a more defensive approach that is geared towards preventing another power from ever controlling the region Deterrence is not always the same as dominanceThe US can use some of China's own logic against it Together with its allies it can develop defensive arrangements that take advantage of the region's geography and which would make it almost impossible for China to seize contested areas ? and to hold on to those islands if it were to try By making clear the high penalties that would be involved in any attempt to snatch disputed islands it can ensure that China cannot change the region's status quo Such a goal would be both much cheaper to achieve and much less confrontational than planning for mainland air strikesThe American naval historians Toshi Yoshihara and James Holmes suggest that the US partly focuses on what they call "war limited by contingent" ? smaller-scale operations which prevent dramatic escalation but make life difficult for the Chinese navy They draw the analogy of Wellington's campaign in Spain and Portugal in 1807-14 which in military terms was a sideshow to the broader conflict with France but which Napoleon complained gave him "an ulcer" The geography along the first island chain provides many strategic locations which can be used to construct small-scale facilities with missile batteries that could create havoc for a rival navy Submarines and mines would add to the deterrent effect against any land-grabs "The ideas that China is pursuing about denying access can work both ways" Holmes told me "There are many ways to give China an ulcer which could be one of the best ways of deterring aggression before it ever happens"For the more pessimistic observers the US and China are doomed to repeat the intense security competition of the cold war John Mearsheimer the University of Chicago scholar argues that the rivalry could be even more volatile than with the Soviet Union because there are more potential disputes He also says he would not be surprised if China and Japan "start shooting at each other" at some stage over the next five yearsSuch bleak outcomes are not inevitable of course ? powerful economic connections narrow the space for reckless behaviour Yet a previous era of globalisation failed to prevent the UK and Germany from going to war Shinzo Abe the Japanese prime minister is not alone in comparing the current situation in Asia to Europe in 1914 Asian militaries lack the meticulous war plans that helped push Europe into conflict then but the region offered a familiar mixture of nationalism and the potential for miscalculations that can spin out of control The western Pacific may now be the cockpit of the world economy but it is also turning into one of its most dangerous flashpoints -------------------------------------------Geoff Dyer covers US foreign policy and is a former Beijing bureau chief for the FT His book is published this month by Knopf (US) and Penguin (UK) To comment email -------------------------------------------Letter in response to this article: Ne18350.044160On Turf52716110. or sponsorship.Canadians can donate . The UN itself has launched a for $300 million US it says is needed to fund the relief efforts."'In his seven-year career?" Parise said.June 24 2011 A trial is launched in which Tymoshenko is by signing a controversial gas deal contract with Russian supplier Gazprom.March 2006 Parliamentary elections give Yanukovich's Party of the Regions a majority,00Vs. | | | | Air Jordan 1 (Hôte)
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